Background on Taliban Crisis:

•The Taliban’s known as the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan (IEA) ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. It was the toughest time for women in Afghanistan. Presuming an austere interpretation of the Islamic Sharia and Pashtun tribal practices, the group paused access to women’s education, employment and health services. Women rights in Afghanistan gained equality under the 1964 constitution. However, taken back in the year 1990 via temporary rulers like the Taliban during the civil war. Women had very little to no freedom, in terms of civil liberties.

•The Taliban originated in southern Afghanistan by a member of the Pashtun tribe (Mullah Omar). He became a mujahedeen commander that helped Soviets out of the country in 1989. Mullah Omar captured Kandahar and seized Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. 

This happened when Afghans grew disenchanted with the country’s insecurity. Taliban swiftly foist strict Islamic rules that banned television and music. Above all, barred girls from going to school and made women forcefully wear burqas.

Taliban and Laden:

The Taliban protected Osama bin Laden after he planned and executed a 9/11 attack in the US. Taliban refused to give back bin laden when the U.S. demanded. American troops invaded Afghanistan and quickly toppled Mullah Omar’s government. Mullah Omar and other Taliban leaders found their protection in neighboring country’s like Pakistan. While they mounted an insurgent campaign to regain power in Afghanistan. The militants ran away and later regrouped. 

Nato Alliances joined the US and a new Afghan government came in 2004 but the Taliban continued to attack. With the help of president Barak Obama, troops in 2009, the Taliban force pushed back but not for the long term. 2001-2014 was the bloodiest year, Nato’s international forces ended their combat mission, leaving security to the Afghan army. That gave the Taliban momentum and they seized more territory. But the question arises that how the return of the Taliban became catastrophic for women? 

Condition of Women:

Under the Taliban rule, women were to cover themselves and only leave the house in the company of any male relative. They also banned them from attending schools and working outside the home. They couldn’t even vote. 

Women were imposed with punishments for disobeying these rules which also made them beat and flogged, and can declare their death if found guilty. Afghanistan had the highest maternal mortality rate in the world. But with the Fall of the Taliban in 2001, the situation for Afghani women and girls vastly improved. Women of Afghanistan were able to hold their position as ambassadors, ministers, police, governor’s and security force members.

In 2003 new government rejected the Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination Against Women, which requires states to incorporate gender equality into their domestic law. In 2004 Afghan Constitution holds that citizens of Afghanistan has equal rights and duties before the law. Meanwhile, in 2009 a law introduced to secure women from forced and under-age marriage and violence as well. After this law, a lot changed that got discovered as violence and crime against women became less. Having almost no girls at school to tens of thousands at university, the progress has been slow and unstable. Also, under the rule of the Taliban, an incident took at Kabul University. Women students were not allowed to leave their dorm rooms unless they are accompanied by a male guardian. Two students said they were effectively trapped because they had no male relatives in the city.

Conclusion:

•The notion speaks that the Taliban will change their ways which have been greeted with deep skepticism.

Worried about running into a conflict of local Taliban’s, many women stayed at home. Kabul residents have been tearing down the advertisement that show’s women without headscarves in recent days. The last rule of Taliban made restrictions on their behavior, outfit and movements. Imposed by roving morality police from the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. They drove all over in pickup trucks, publicly humiliating and whipping women who did not follow to their rules. But for this new generation of Afghan girls who grew up studying at school and nurturing their dreams, the Taliban era is ancient history, and turning back the clock is a nearly incomprehensible fate. Therefore, the return of the Taliban have made an uneven and disturbed environment in the country of Afghanistan.

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In our previous articles, we discussed Taliban’s takeover further leading to social media accounts being taken down. We shall now look at how the whole situation is affecting the economy of Afghanistan.

IMF Spokesperson Gerry Rice: “As is always the case, the IMF is guided by the views of the international community. There is currently a lack of clarity within the international community regarding recognition of a government in Afghanistan, as a consequence of which the country cannot access the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) or other IMF resources”.

ECONOMIC history of Afghanistan:

Afghanistan is one of the low-income group countries. The economy slowed down post-2014. Even before 2014 largely sustained by international assistance. The biggest challenge of Afghanistan’s economy according to the World Bank is its inability to find sustainable sources of growth. Moreover, private sector growth narrowly followed by low productivity in agriculture, constrained with the following- 

1- Insecurity

2- Political instability

3- Weak institution

4- Inadequate infrastructure

5- Widespread corruption 

6- Difficult business environment

7- Weak competitiveness

Due to the above-mentioned constraints, there is a structural deficit, 75% of public spending comes from the grant inflows. 28% of the GDP spent on national security and police in comparison to low-income country average. Accounting for 2-3 % of GDP bringing down total public spending to 57%. 

Above all, the economy was standing strong because of aid influx at 9.4% average growth during 2003-2012, booming was due to aid–driven service sector and a strong economy. The social and economic slowdown took down the economic growth to 2.5% during 2015-2020.

The security situation deteriorated with the Taliban insurgency. We saw a decline in aids from 100% to 42%. As Taliban attacks on civilians and military increased the decline in the number of international troops were noticeable. There is much to unfold behind the critics that came from time to time. The withdrawal of troops started during Obama’s presidency in phases and use the resources to counter-terrorism on priority elsewhere. As an escalation on way, Trump signalled towards a prolonged war. Political gains were more important than assessing the true situation in Afghanistan today.

It was the United States and George Bush who after the 9/11 attack shared his will to reconstruct Afghanistan. The U.S. Congress appropriating over $38 billion in humanitarian and reconstruction assistance to Afghanistan from 2001 to 2009. 

THE GENEVA CONFERENCE 2020:

The commitment to aid the country renewed during this conference for 2021- 2024. The future support made conditional with single year pledges. Condition for the government was as follows-

1- Combating corruption

2- Reduction in poverty

3- Advancing peace talks

The daunting challenge:

The current economic situation in Afghanistan is fragile, with IMF blocking Afghanistan’s emergency reserve (SPECIAL DRWAING RIGHTS) worth USD 460 million. 

What is SDR–

An interest-bearing international reserve asset created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement other reserve assets of member countries. An SDR allocation is a way of supplementing Fund member countries’ foreign exchange reserves, allowing members to reduce their reliance on more expensive domestic or external debt for building reserves.

United States has also cancelled the bulk shipment of dollars headed to Afghanistan which was Afghanistan reserve with the U.S Federal Bank. An administrative official told “Any central bank assets the Afghan government has in the United States will not be made available to the Taliban” quoting Wall Street Journal.

Current scenario:

Political economy–

Significant natural resources are an attraction to international business with a lot of mineral potentials specifically “LITHIUM”. No wonder China’s interest in building a better relationship with the Taliban has a lot to do with resource sharing. During a press conference held by the Taliban, a spoke person stated, “assurance to bank owners, money changers, traders and shopkeepers that their lives and property would be protected”.

According to the World Bank, the illicit economy “accounts for a significant share of production, exports, and employment”. Many of the people employed in Afghanistan’s private sector likely associated with the heroin trade, illegal mining, or smuggling. 

Gender role in the economy–

Women employment was on the rise until 2019 at 22% was still low as per international standards. Further, the economic prospects can worsen under the Taliban since women tend to stand in a vulnerable position. The question is also of the physical security of women.

International trading–

The import and export from India has been stopped by the Taliban as they took over Kabul on Sunday. Imports are related and largely dependent on dry fruits. FIEO DG said, “We also import a little gum and onions from them,” quoting economic times. Due to the ongoing turmoil, the prices of dry fruits would rise. Amidst the rise in Covid-19 infection, the vaccination in eastern Afghanistan’s Paktia province was halted. 

Poverty–

“In Afghanistan, 47.3% of the population lives below the national poverty line in 2020. In Afghanistan, the proportion of employed population below $1.90 purchasing power parity a day is 34.3% in 2019” as per Asian Development Bank. 

The financial status is very uncertain with an economic collapse without international aid. The Taliban funds themselves with drug trafficking and opium poppy production, extortion, kidnapping for ransom, mineral exploitation, and revenues from tax collection in areas under Taliban control or influence.

The rich have fled away, the middle class and poor will be the real sufferers of the current situation. While ATM’s have stopped the money supply. The wealthy probably saw the financial disaster looming. Afghanistan is a landlocked country and getting money inside will not be easy until the system and administration are restored or stabilised. This gives us an idea of people running out of their grocery items and the urgent need to be careful with their daily usage.

“Of all the hardships a person had to face, none was more punishing than the simple act of waiting” Khaled Hosseini in Thousand Splendid Suns.

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